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Risk Management

The Abilene Paradox in the Mountains

American Alpine Institute
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The The Abilene Paradox describes a strange group failure: people collectively choose an option that none of them actually want—because each assumes everyone else does.

In mountain travel, this shows up all the time.

A team pushes onto a questionable slope. Climbers continue toward a summit on a sketchy weather day. Skiers drop into terrain that makes everyone quietly uneasy. No one speaks up, because everyone believes the others are comfortable with the plan.

This is a classic heuristic trap—a predictable mental shortcut that leads to poor decisions. Specifically, it blends social acceptance and social facilitation: the desire to fit in and the tendency to defer to perceived group consensus.

The problem isn’t lack of competence. It’s lack of communication.

Once a group slips into this trap, it often takes only one small additional factor—a wind slab, deteriorating weather, a navigation error—to turn a bad decision into an accident.

Avoiding the Abilene Paradox in the mountains starts with a simple habit: say what you actually think.

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